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April Lean Hogs opened lower and traded down to the low of the day at 83.55. The breakdown took price below the declining 200-DMA now at 83.925, stopping just above support at 83.325. Price turned higher and rallied to the session high at 87.55. It consolidated in the upper end of the trading range for the rest of the session and settled at 86.65. The rally took price past resistance at the rising 100-DMA now at 84.675, the key level at 85.325, the 50-DMA now at 86.60 and the key level at 87.10. That is an impressive feat, especially with a weak Equity market that kept a lid on cattle prices in my opinion. The rally couldn’t hod resistance at 87.10 but was able to squeak by the 50-DMA. The revolving door of the tariff situation provided some support to the market as the President announced the delay of tariffs on some Mexican products that complies with the USMC trade agreement, lightening the stress on the Hog market. Cash fundamentals remain strong, and our exports were excellent on Thursday’s report with sales at 42,400 MT. We could have a strong cutout seasonal as we near Easter and the summer grilling season. Beef cutouts are expected to go higher and if this occurs it could have a positive influence on pork prices. Slaughter levels remain under last year and this could also keep upward movement in both cutouts and cash prices. Futures are below the cash market as traders worry about tariffs and the implications it would bring to our exports. But each time(so far) tariffs are announced they get pushed back into the future which could provide our trading partners with more time to front load purchases of our pork in case the tariffs finally stick. This could help prices in the short run. We’ll see!... A breakdown from settlement could see price test support at 85.325 and then the 100 and 200-DMAs. Support then comes in at 83.325. If price can retake resistance at 87.10, we could see a test of resistance at 88.325. The 21-DMA is nearby at 88.675. A breakout from here could see price approach resistance at 90.40. 

The Pork Cutout Index down ticked and is at 98.60 as of 03/05/2025. 

The Lean Hog Index ticked lower and is at 90.20 as of 03/04/2025.

Estimated Slaughter for Thursday is 485,000, which is below last week’s 489,000 and above last year’s 471,755. The estimated total for the week (so far) is 1,817,000, which is below last week’s 1,958,000 and last year’s 1,893,135.

**Call me for a free consultation for a marketing plan regarding your livestock needs.**

Ben DiCostanzo

Senior Market Strategist

Walsh Trading, Inc.

Direct: 312.957.4163

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